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It's likely that 10% of the US are now infected with COVID-19, or will be within at most a few days.

Or: a Space Alien Cat draws inferences from epidemiological data.

There's some good and bad news.

joindiaspora.com/posts/dba701b

@dredmorbius I'm not sure how you can infer that given the difference between all the states; the rates seem very different between different states.

@penguin42 Law of large numbers, projection, comformity with existing trends, consistency w/ experience.

The numbers are decidedly rough. But as stated several times and ways, even large measurement errors mean only a few days of difference in reaching the threshold.

@penguin42 See for example:

sfchronicle.com/news/article/C

Calif. testing still lags, there's a delay of up to 10 days for results -- add that to exposure, symptoms, seeking medical care, and actually receiving a test.

Again, a 2 week lag is pretty likely. Longer lags would indicate even _greater_ undertesting, relattive to deaths.

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