It's likely that 10% of the US are now infected with COVID-19, or will be within at most a few days.
Or: a Space Alien Cat draws inferences from epidemiological data.
There's some good and bad news.
@dredmorbius I'm not sure how you can infer that given the difference between all the states; the rates seem very different between different states.
@penguin42 Law of large numbers, projection, comformity with existing trends, consistency w/ experience.
The numbers are decidedly rough. But as stated several times and ways, even large measurement errors mean only a few days of difference in reaching the threshold.
@penguin42 See for example:
Calif. testing still lags, there's a delay of up to 10 days for results -- add that to exposure, symptoms, seeking medical care, and actually receiving a test.
Again, a 2 week lag is pretty likely. Longer lags would indicate even _greater_ undertesting, relattive to deaths.
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