COVID-19 Projections: on March 25, the US will have more confirmed cases than China's 81,000.

China's growth has all but stopped. The US is still picking up speed.

This is based on my projections from March 7, which remain accurate based on exponential growth.

I'd really hoped -- expected, really, as the linked article (parent) begins, that we would have seen a low-side departure from projection by now. We've not.

There's some faint hope: the US has accellerated testing tremendously, meaning "confirmed cases" growth doubtless reflects this. And deaths HAVE lagged projection, now by 5 days.

But informed government sources conceed actual inections are large multiples of confirmed, and that growth exceeds testing capacity.

It looks bad.

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@dredmorbius They're not necessarily testing the dead, especially in jurisdictions where the standing order is to only test if it will change the course of treatment.

@feonixrift I've heard as much, from informed and intelligent government sources.

@dredmorbius @feonixrift Compared with China, the problem is it's not just a single hotspot in any of the other countries; while New York (& London) are massive hotspots, there's still large centres out side that.

@dredmorbius time to go regional when looking at the US response:

-New York, Florida, Georgia fucked up massively and the death toll will be devastating there
- Washington state might have fucked up, it’s too early to tell
- California and Kentucky are ahead of the curve in crisis response and that saved a ton of lives

For other states it’s too early to tell, but basically every state where there are more than a few hundred cases should shelter-in-place immediately.

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