How many years until General Direct Dialed telephony dies?

Discuss.

As I'd posted this poll a week or so back, general direct-dialed telephony, a/k/a PSTN (public switched telephone networks) seem to be in trouble. I think we could be within five years of their total collapse. And no, not just land lines (already about 25% of their peak in much of the US), but _all_ direct-dialed phones: mobile and VOIP included.

The problem, as I'd written before, is paradoxically the _low_ cost of calls. This is inducing tremendous volumes of junk calls, with one ...

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I'm more than happy to be proved wrong. But past systems seem to have first shown issues at about 100k users, and hit substantial problems as _actives_ climbed into the 1m - 10m range.

The fact that Facebook _has_ scaled to _billions_ is actually quite an accomplishment. The problems have finally appeared, but they were kept in check for quite some time.

For open and federated systems, there seem to be a number of failure paths, though I'll save those for another discussion.

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@dredmorbius
you should blog more, or use a #Fediverse instance with higher character limit. ;)

@FiXato The blog is ... on my to-do list.

(The to-do list is ... not on my blog.)

@dredmorbius same :) I currently blog on an ancient Wordpress fork hosted by #CoActivate.org, but I'm keen to transition to something that interacts with the #fediverse, as well as publishing to the web. I've considered using apps that allow long form posts and speak a number of federation standards. Eg #Friendica (#OStatus, #Diaspora, #ActivityPub) or #Hubzilla (all those plus #Zot). I'm also watching the tech deployed for @blog (WP + plugins).

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