Prediction: Mastodon will likely outlast Twitter.
Historically, decentralized, open-source platforms and protocols with any adoption run forever, even if they rarely reach the popularity or cultural relevance of centralized platforms.
It seems likely to me that when Twitter eventually shuts down, people will still be running Mastodon instances.
Did you know Diaspora has 328 active nodes and 17k users? Hell, there are 3,652 active FidoNet nodes, and that started in 1984!
So... am I wrong?
@andybaio You are not wrong, though I think most of the chatter (however inane) about Mastodon: Twitter Killer Or Flash In The Pan? isn't really engaging with that question. For folks orienting Mastodon as the latest entrant in an all-or-nothing corporate tech rivalry, "it's got basic legs and people will keep using it because it's nice" isn't one of the narrative paths on the table.
Generalistic and moderated instance.